A deferred contract is a futures contract with a contract month later than the current front month. The designation is relative rather than permanent: futures markets can have several deferred contracts trading at the same time, so “deferred” does not necessarily mean only the immediately following maturity.
The same calendar contract can therefore change roles as time passes. A later-dated contract remains deferred while a nearer maturity occupies the front position, then can become the front month after the nearer traded maturities expire or otherwise cease to be the nearest traded contracts. Positions are also commonly rolled from an approaching front month into a deferred contract, and in many markets trading activity and open interest can migrate toward the later maturity before the earlier contract expires. That migration affects where liquidity is concentrated, but it does not itself define which contract is the front month.
A later price is not simply a later forecast
The price of a deferred contract is one point on the futures term structure. Its price relationship with a nearer maturity is the relationship traded through a calendar-spread position. In storable commodities, nearby-versus-deferred pricing can reflect financing, storage and other carrying costs, inventory availability and the economic value of holding physical supply. Financial futures have different carry mechanics. Expectations about future conditions can influence prices as well, but a deferred futures price should not be interpreted mechanically as a forecast of the spot price that will prevail when that contract matures.
Why the label matters in historical research
Deferred contract must also be distinguished from contract month. Contract month identifies a specific maturity; deferred contract describes that maturity's position relative to a nearer contract. A historical series described only as “deferred” therefore needs an explicit selection rule, such as the first maturity after the front month, a more distant relative maturity or a specified calendar contract. Without that rule, comparisons of deferred prices, spreads or liquidity can silently combine different underlying maturities as the curve rolls through time.